When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis

Shaul Michael Gabbay

doi:doi:10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14

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When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis

Shaul Michael Gabbay^*

Published in Journal of Political Science and International Relations (Volume 8, Issue 4)

Received: 26 September 2025 Accepted: 14 October 2025 Published: 31 October 2025

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Abstract

Jordan is widely perceived as an island of stability within a turbulent Middle East, yet this perception conceals significant internal fragility. This paper examines the gradual erosion of the Hashemite monarchy’s long-standing patronage system, which historically distributed state resources—jobs, subsidies, and stipends—to loyal East Bank tribes in exchange for political allegiance and social cohesion. Drawing on recent economic data, policy analyses, and reports from international organizations, the study traces how external austerity programs, demographic pressures, and declining revenues have undermined this arrangement, producing disillusionment among traditional supporters and intensifying the exclusion of non-tribal groups such as Palestinian-Jordanians, refugees, and urban professionals. The analysis further explores how scapegoating of outsiders has emerged as a mechanism of control and how new coercive instruments, including expanded surveillance, protest restrictions, and the 2023 cybercrime law, reveal a shift from patronage to repression. By linking these domestic transformations to the experiences of failed asylum seekers and other returnees, the paper demonstrates that the weakening of tribal protection and the expansion of state control create new layers of vulnerability. The findings suggest that all Jordanians now face heightened structural risks, yet those outside the East Bank tribal framework encounter particularly acute exposure to exclusion, marginalization, and state pressure.

Published in	Journal of Political Science and International Relations (Volume 8, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14
Page(s)	257-262
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Jordan, Patronage, Tribal, Palestinian-Jordanians, Returnees

References

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[11]	United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), "Jordan: Water Scarcity Challenges," United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/e550
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[17]	United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), "Syria Regional Refugee Response – Jordan, 2023," United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 1 March 2024. Available: https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/36 . (Accessed 17 September 2025).
[18]	C. R. Ryan, Jordan in Transition: From Hussein to Abdullah, Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2002.
[19]	R. E. Lucas, "Deliberalization in Jordan," Journal of Democracy, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 36-48, 2002.
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[21]	R. Khalidi, Palestinian Identity: The Construction of Modern National Consciousness, New York: Columbia University Press, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0395264900019120
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APA Style

Gabbay, S. M. (2025). When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis. Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 8(4), 257-262. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14

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ACS Style

Gabbay, S. M. When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis. J. Polit. Sci. Int. Relat. 2025, 8(4), 257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14

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AMA Style

Gabbay SM. When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis. J Polit Sci Int Relat. 2025;8(4):257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14

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@article{10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14,
  author = {Shaul Michael Gabbay},
  title = {When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis
},
  journal = {Journal of Political Science and International Relations},
  volume = {8},
  number = {4},
  pages = {257-262},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jpsir.20250804.14},
  abstract = {Jordan is widely perceived as an island of stability within a turbulent Middle East, yet this perception conceals significant internal fragility. This paper examines the gradual erosion of the Hashemite monarchy’s long-standing patronage system, which historically distributed state resources—jobs, subsidies, and stipends—to loyal East Bank tribes in exchange for political allegiance and social cohesion. Drawing on recent economic data, policy analyses, and reports from international organizations, the study traces how external austerity programs, demographic pressures, and declining revenues have undermined this arrangement, producing disillusionment among traditional supporters and intensifying the exclusion of non-tribal groups such as Palestinian-Jordanians, refugees, and urban professionals. The analysis further explores how scapegoating of outsiders has emerged as a mechanism of control and how new coercive instruments, including expanded surveillance, protest restrictions, and the 2023 cybercrime law, reveal a shift from patronage to repression. By linking these domestic transformations to the experiences of failed asylum seekers and other returnees, the paper demonstrates that the weakening of tribal protection and the expansion of state control create new layers of vulnerability. The findings suggest that all Jordanians now face heightened structural risks, yet those outside the East Bank tribal framework encounter particularly acute exposure to exclusion, marginalization, and state pressure.
},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis

AU  - Shaul Michael Gabbay
Y1  - 2025/10/31
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14
T2  - Journal of Political Science and International Relations
JF  - Journal of Political Science and International Relations
JO  - Journal of Political Science and International Relations
SP  - 257
EP  - 262
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2640-2785
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14
AB  - Jordan is widely perceived as an island of stability within a turbulent Middle East, yet this perception conceals significant internal fragility. This paper examines the gradual erosion of the Hashemite monarchy’s long-standing patronage system, which historically distributed state resources—jobs, subsidies, and stipends—to loyal East Bank tribes in exchange for political allegiance and social cohesion. Drawing on recent economic data, policy analyses, and reports from international organizations, the study traces how external austerity programs, demographic pressures, and declining revenues have undermined this arrangement, producing disillusionment among traditional supporters and intensifying the exclusion of non-tribal groups such as Palestinian-Jordanians, refugees, and urban professionals. The analysis further explores how scapegoating of outsiders has emerged as a mechanism of control and how new coercive instruments, including expanded surveillance, protest restrictions, and the 2023 cybercrime law, reveal a shift from patronage to repression. By linking these domestic transformations to the experiences of failed asylum seekers and other returnees, the paper demonstrates that the weakening of tribal protection and the expansion of state control create new layers of vulnerability. The findings suggest that all Jordanians now face heightened structural risks, yet those outside the East Bank tribal framework encounter particularly acute exposure to exclusion, marginalization, and state pressure.

VL  - 8
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Shaul Michael Gabbay

Global Research Institute, Posner Center for International Development, Denver, the United States

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APA Style

Gabbay, S. M. (2025). When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis. Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 8(4), 257-262. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14

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ACS Style

Gabbay, S. M. When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis. J. Polit. Sci. Int. Relat. 2025, 8(4), 257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14

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AMA Style

Gabbay SM. When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis. J Polit Sci Int Relat. 2025;8(4):257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14,
  author = {Shaul Michael Gabbay},
  title = {When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis
},
  journal = {Journal of Political Science and International Relations},
  volume = {8},
  number = {4},
  pages = {257-262},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jpsir.20250804.14},
  abstract = {Jordan is widely perceived as an island of stability within a turbulent Middle East, yet this perception conceals significant internal fragility. This paper examines the gradual erosion of the Hashemite monarchy’s long-standing patronage system, which historically distributed state resources—jobs, subsidies, and stipends—to loyal East Bank tribes in exchange for political allegiance and social cohesion. Drawing on recent economic data, policy analyses, and reports from international organizations, the study traces how external austerity programs, demographic pressures, and declining revenues have undermined this arrangement, producing disillusionment among traditional supporters and intensifying the exclusion of non-tribal groups such as Palestinian-Jordanians, refugees, and urban professionals. The analysis further explores how scapegoating of outsiders has emerged as a mechanism of control and how new coercive instruments, including expanded surveillance, protest restrictions, and the 2023 cybercrime law, reveal a shift from patronage to repression. By linking these domestic transformations to the experiences of failed asylum seekers and other returnees, the paper demonstrates that the weakening of tribal protection and the expansion of state control create new layers of vulnerability. The findings suggest that all Jordanians now face heightened structural risks, yet those outside the East Bank tribal framework encounter particularly acute exposure to exclusion, marginalization, and state pressure.
},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis

AU  - Shaul Michael Gabbay
Y1  - 2025/10/31
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14
T2  - Journal of Political Science and International Relations
JF  - Journal of Political Science and International Relations
JO  - Journal of Political Science and International Relations
SP  - 257
EP  - 262
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2640-2785
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jpsir.20250804.14
AB  - Jordan is widely perceived as an island of stability within a turbulent Middle East, yet this perception conceals significant internal fragility. This paper examines the gradual erosion of the Hashemite monarchy’s long-standing patronage system, which historically distributed state resources—jobs, subsidies, and stipends—to loyal East Bank tribes in exchange for political allegiance and social cohesion. Drawing on recent economic data, policy analyses, and reports from international organizations, the study traces how external austerity programs, demographic pressures, and declining revenues have undermined this arrangement, producing disillusionment among traditional supporters and intensifying the exclusion of non-tribal groups such as Palestinian-Jordanians, refugees, and urban professionals. The analysis further explores how scapegoating of outsiders has emerged as a mechanism of control and how new coercive instruments, including expanded surveillance, protest restrictions, and the 2023 cybercrime law, reveal a shift from patronage to repression. By linking these domestic transformations to the experiences of failed asylum seekers and other returnees, the paper demonstrates that the weakening of tribal protection and the expansion of state control create new layers of vulnerability. The findings suggest that all Jordanians now face heightened structural risks, yet those outside the East Bank tribal framework encounter particularly acute exposure to exclusion, marginalization, and state pressure.

VL  - 8
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download